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So as the Rand goes South So does the Pound!!

So can the Pound and the SA Rand hang on.

Following on from last week, the Pound slumped to the lowest level since January against the U.S Dollar and the SA Rand stands above R 8.04 to the $, after turmoil engulfing global stock markets increased demand for safe haven currencies and the rand is the fall guy at present. The minutes from the Bank of England's last policy meeting showed that policy makers may need to extend quantitative easing measures to support the economy and keep borrowing costs low. The UK currency also slumped for the first time in four days versus the Euro as the minutes also revealed that officials expect growth in the second half of the year to be much weaker.


There is an increased likelihood that the UK economy slipped into negative growth during the third quarter and the Pound is declining on the prospect of further stimulus measures to be introduced by November. The UK Business Secretary Vince Cable reiterated the need for the Bank of England to act and buy assets other than government bonds.


Will the SA rand re-value itself, and the SA Reserve Bank make a decision to drop rates - I would hope so.


But this is a great time to send money to SA and at no transfer fees this has to be a win for any investor sending money to SA.


The Pound also declined against the majors, as an industry report showed UK consumer confidence dropped to the lowest level in four months in August. The decline in confidence follows the worst civil unrest in thirty years during August, while gauges of manufacturing, services and construction also declined.


There is a high degree of uncertainty surrounding the outlook for the UK and indeed the global economy and speculation over another recession is also weakening demand for the Pound, particularly against the lower-yielding currencies like the Dollar and the Yen. The UK currency declined to a low of 1.5450 against the Dollar on Friday, the lowest level since January 11th.


The minutes also showed the voting pattern was 8-1 to maintain the current size of the bond-purchasing plan and was unanimous on keeping interest rates unchanged at 0.5%. However, policy maker Adam Posen, who has voted to increase quantitative easing measures every month this year, increased his recommendation to £250 billion worth of stimulus.


Investors are also betting that the Bank of England will keep interest rates on hold until after July 2012. Elsewhere, a report from the Office of National Statistics showed that Britain had its biggest budget deficit for any August since modern records began in 1993, as government spending increased and income tax receipts declined. The shortfall of £15.9 billion, compared with £14 billion a year earlier and the increase may jeopardise the UK's AAA credit rating. There is also speculation that the government will have to shift fiscal policies given the deterioration in the economic outlook. The weaker outlook for domestic and global growth had an important negative impact on confidence, amid fears that the UK debt burden could trigger a further downturn in economic activity. The latest CBI Industrial orders data provided no support to Sterling, weakening to -9 from 1 previously.
The Pound found support just below 1.54 over the weekend and the UK currency looks set for further losses, as the UK BBA mortgage lending data was marginally stronger-than-expected, which inspired a degree of confidence in the housing sector. The data didn't have a big impact on the market amid international developments elsewhere, which continued to dominate.
There were hopes that Euro-zone leaders would push towards a re-capitalisation of the banking sector and this would tend to provide a degree of relief to UK banks. The Pound also gained support from being outside the Euro-zone, as any burden of supporting weaker Euro-zone countries would not fall on the UK.


There will be very important concerns surrounding the UK economy with increasing pressure for additional quantitative easing by the Bank of England. Nevertheless, the Pound advanced towards 1.15 again against the Euro in early trading this morning and a move higher seems likely this week.


The SA Rand has definitely not escaped the double dip recession.

The Pound does a Jig

Following on from last week, the Pound bounced back against the U.S Dollar on Wednesday, rising for the first time in four days, albeit briefly, after a report from the Office of National Statistics showed that UK unemployment claims increased by less-than-expected in August. Public sector jobs plummeted 111,000 in the three months to June but the smaller decline in jobless claims is a result of the improvement in private-sector job growth.   Money transfer to USA are all the rage.

The government plans to eliminate 330,000 jobs over a four year period, as part of the deficit reduction plan. The Pound lost ground for a third day against the Euro, trading back under 1.15 in what can be described as a corrective recovery from the previous week's upward move to a 4-month high. Appetite for Sterling will be limited amid speculation of further quantitative easing and a contraction in growth during the third quarter.

The Bank of England kept interest rates on hold at 0.5% this month and policy makers are expected to renew the quantitative plan by November to support the economy. MPC member Adam Posen said last week that the outlook for the economy had worsened and his colleagues should back his call for more stimulus measures to be introduced.

Posen indicated that he may double his recommendation for bond purchases and will intensify the debate within the MPC to add more stimulus. He has voted for a £50 billion increase in the bond plan every month since October and said the BoE needs to buy as much as £100 billion of securities within three months or the economic outlook will worsen.

The claimant count rate was 4.9% in August and the number of people receiving unemployment benefits was 1.58 million. The UK economy barely grew in the second quarter at a revised estimate of 0.2% from the previous month and a measure of factory production, services and construction have all declined in August, making a contraction all the more likely.

The unemployment rate held steady at 7.9% despite the number of unemployed people increased by 80,000 to 2.51 million. The government is hoping that the private sector will help mitigate the drop in public sector jobs over the next four years but there is pressure on banks to cut jobs. The biggest global banks are cutting jobs at the fastest pace since 2008, as a slowing global economy hurts revenue.

The Pound found an area of support in the region of 1.57 against the U.S Dollar and rallied through the European trading session with a peak above 1.58. Underlying confidence in the UK economy will remain extremely fragile, amid fears that there would be a further deterioration in consumer confidence, while there was significant unease surrounding the banking sector.

The Pound fell dramatically against the Euro on Thursday, trading back towards 1.1350, while the single currency also made widespread gains against the majors, including the U.S Dollar, after the European Central Bank announced that it would be increasing Dollar liquidity to banks in an attempt to help resolve the sovereign debt crisis.

The announcement added significant support to the Euro, just a day after Germany and France pledged to support Greece, amid speculation that the struggling nation would be ejected from the EU. Euro buyers have watched the Pound depreciate for four days consecutively this week, a trend that may continue over the coming days, amid a renewed appetite for Euro-denominated assets.

The Pound found support on dips towards 1.5720 against the U.S Dollar and spiked higher through the course of the day on a revival in risk appetite. Developments within the Euro-zone tended to dominate market sentiment, but there remains a distinct lack of confidence in the UK economy, which was emphasized by the poor retail sales numbers.

The report from the Office of National Statistics showed that sales, including fuel declined 0.2% in August, falling for the first time in three months on declining consumer confidence. UK consumer spending was hurt by rising inflation at 4.5%, almost twice the pace of wage growth, while the worst civil unrest in major UK cities almost impacted on sales.

The government spending cuts have also restrained the recovery and is forcing the Bank of England to discuss the possibility of extending quantitative easing to pump more stimulus into the economy in order to prevent a contraction in growth. The BoE said in a report last week that household inflation expectations climbed to the highest level in three years last month.

The latest Rightmove house price index recorded an increase of 1.5% for September, after a 0.3% decline the previous month. Euro-zone trends tended to dominate and the report had a mixed impact on the Pound. The UK currency has also benefited from a being a safe haven from the turmoil that has engulfed the Euro-zone but there are fears that there would be substantial economic damage to the UK if Euro-zone difficulties intensify.

In the UK this week, the highlight will be Wednesday's release of the minutes of the September Bank of England policy meeting. No change in the voting pattern is expected from the previous, although the tone of the discussions will be closely watched given the recent comments from Adam Posen and Martin Weale.

UK economy stagnates

GBPEUR/GBPUSD


The Pound failed to receive a boost against the majors, after the Bank of England decided to keep interest rates unchanged at a record low of 0.5%. The UK currency remained just above 1.64 versus the Dollar and 1.12 against the Euro before the ECB press conference. The central bank also kept interest rates on hold this month but in the accompanying statement, the chairman Jean-Claude Trichet, gave a strong indication to the market that the governing council will be raising the benchmark lending rate in July.

His hawkish rhetoric on inflation was followed by the key term that "strong vigilance" is required in order to maintain risks to price stability. Trichet has historically been very transparent on the ECB's monetary outlook and the Euro has been gaining for the past week on speculation that the central bank would increase interest rates to 1.25% in July.

Therefore, the Euro hasn't rallied to a degree that one might expect following the statement, largely because a rate increase has been factored into the market and that is the primary reason the Euro has gained versus the Pound for the past six days consecutively. However, given the inherent weakness in Sterling and the negative sentiment engulfing the UK economic outlook, the Euro may stage a move towards 1.10 over the coming days to test the support level from the previous downside move.

The single currency also had a subdued response against the Dollar following the statement, trading back towards 1.4450 overnight. The downward movement on EUR/USD also saw the U.S Currency strengthen towards 1.63 versus the Pound, indicating that the Euro's incredible rally over the past two weeks was over-exaggerated and we're witnessing a correction in the market.

The Bank of England left interest rates unchanged at 0.5% and investors will have to wait until the minutes of the meeting are released later this month to gauge how the MPC voted in June. Recent economic data has pointed to a loss of momentum in the recovery and policy makers are focused on supporting growth rather than tackling inflation.

The BoE also left its bond purchase program on hold at £200 billion and Mervyn King's push to maintain low interest rates won the support of the IMF this week, which said it's appropriate to maintain the "current scale of monetary stimulus." While inflation is more than double the government's 2% target, support for higher interest rates has been eroded by Andrew Sentance's departure in May, exactly a year after he first called for higher rates.

The UK economy stagnated in the six months through March, barely erasing the contraction in growth from the fourth quarter of 2010. Consumer spending slumped by the most in almost two years in the first quarter and surveys last week pointed to further weakness, as manufacturing expanded at the slowest pace in 20 months in May and services growth cooled.

According to the sterling overnight interbank average, investors are now betting on a 25 basis point increase in UK interest rates in April next year and that forecast is being scaled back almost on a weekly basis, undermining confidence in the Pound. The IMF has lowered its 2011 UK growth forecasts this week to 1.5% and Moody's Investors Service has warned that the UK could be subject to a credit rating downgrade if the government fails to meet its deficit reduction target this year.

The Pound also came under pressure yesterday amid further uncertainty surrounding the UK growth forecast and the overall tone was pessimistic. In terms of economic data, the UK trade data was marginally better-than-expected with the deficit for April £7.4 billion and there were still some expectation that the economy can secure strong growth through rising exports.

The Pound rallied to a high of 1.13 against the Euro yesterday, before contracting later in the day, after Trichet's comments spurred speculation that the ECB won't raise interest rates as quickly as previously forecast. The UK currency bounced back from a one-month low against the Euro, despite Trichet's indication that Europe will lift rates in July, as the rest of his speech was surprisingly negative.

The Pound is trading lower against the Euro and a basket of currencies this morning, before a report that is expected to show a drop in manufacturing output in April. Other data of note today includes producer price inflation, which is expected to show that factory prices receded, further adding to the argument to keep interest rates on hold.

EUR/USD

The Euro spiked higher against the Dollar at the start of the ECB press conference yesterday before retreating sharply following mixed comments from the chairman Trichet. The single currency is poised to record the first weekly drop against the Dollar in a month, as investors speculate on how aggressively policy makers will raise interest rates this year.

The Euro traded lower against 10 out of the 16 most actively traded currencies, as concerns over sovereign debt resurfaced in the wake of Trichet's statement. He rejected calls for the central bank to bailout Greece and his largely dovish rhetoric undermined confidence in the Euro to a degree where the single currency slumped almost 2% versus the U.S Dollar.

The Dollar and Yen also benefited from the uncertainty surrounding global financial markets in the wake of Trichet's comments. The revival in risk aversion saw a flock to safety during the Asian trading session overnight, as traders moved away from higher-yielding assets in favour of the safe haven currencies.