So as the Rand goes South So does the Pound!!

So can the Pound and the SA Rand hang on.

Following on from last week, the Pound slumped to the lowest level since January against the U.S Dollar and the SA Rand stands above R 8.04 to the $, after turmoil engulfing global stock markets increased demand for safe haven currencies and the rand is the fall guy at present. The minutes from the Bank of England's last policy meeting showed that policy makers may need to extend quantitative easing measures to support the economy and keep borrowing costs low. The UK currency also slumped for the first time in four days versus the Euro as the minutes also revealed that officials expect growth in the second half of the year to be much weaker.


There is an increased likelihood that the UK economy slipped into negative growth during the third quarter and the Pound is declining on the prospect of further stimulus measures to be introduced by November. The UK Business Secretary Vince Cable reiterated the need for the Bank of England to act and buy assets other than government bonds.


Will the SA rand re-value itself, and the SA Reserve Bank make a decision to drop rates - I would hope so.


But this is a great time to send money to SA and at no transfer fees this has to be a win for any investor sending money to SA.


The Pound also declined against the majors, as an industry report showed UK consumer confidence dropped to the lowest level in four months in August. The decline in confidence follows the worst civil unrest in thirty years during August, while gauges of manufacturing, services and construction also declined.


There is a high degree of uncertainty surrounding the outlook for the UK and indeed the global economy and speculation over another recession is also weakening demand for the Pound, particularly against the lower-yielding currencies like the Dollar and the Yen. The UK currency declined to a low of 1.5450 against the Dollar on Friday, the lowest level since January 11th.


The minutes also showed the voting pattern was 8-1 to maintain the current size of the bond-purchasing plan and was unanimous on keeping interest rates unchanged at 0.5%. However, policy maker Adam Posen, who has voted to increase quantitative easing measures every month this year, increased his recommendation to £250 billion worth of stimulus.


Investors are also betting that the Bank of England will keep interest rates on hold until after July 2012. Elsewhere, a report from the Office of National Statistics showed that Britain had its biggest budget deficit for any August since modern records began in 1993, as government spending increased and income tax receipts declined. The shortfall of £15.9 billion, compared with £14 billion a year earlier and the increase may jeopardise the UK's AAA credit rating. There is also speculation that the government will have to shift fiscal policies given the deterioration in the economic outlook. The weaker outlook for domestic and global growth had an important negative impact on confidence, amid fears that the UK debt burden could trigger a further downturn in economic activity. The latest CBI Industrial orders data provided no support to Sterling, weakening to -9 from 1 previously.
The Pound found support just below 1.54 over the weekend and the UK currency looks set for further losses, as the UK BBA mortgage lending data was marginally stronger-than-expected, which inspired a degree of confidence in the housing sector. The data didn't have a big impact on the market amid international developments elsewhere, which continued to dominate.
There were hopes that Euro-zone leaders would push towards a re-capitalisation of the banking sector and this would tend to provide a degree of relief to UK banks. The Pound also gained support from being outside the Euro-zone, as any burden of supporting weaker Euro-zone countries would not fall on the UK.


There will be very important concerns surrounding the UK economy with increasing pressure for additional quantitative easing by the Bank of England. Nevertheless, the Pound advanced towards 1.15 again against the Euro in early trading this morning and a move higher seems likely this week.


The SA Rand has definitely not escaped the double dip recession.

The Pound does a Jig

Following on from last week, the Pound bounced back against the U.S Dollar on Wednesday, rising for the first time in four days, albeit briefly, after a report from the Office of National Statistics showed that UK unemployment claims increased by less-than-expected in August. Public sector jobs plummeted 111,000 in the three months to June but the smaller decline in jobless claims is a result of the improvement in private-sector job growth.   Money transfer to USA are all the rage.

The government plans to eliminate 330,000 jobs over a four year period, as part of the deficit reduction plan. The Pound lost ground for a third day against the Euro, trading back under 1.15 in what can be described as a corrective recovery from the previous week's upward move to a 4-month high. Appetite for Sterling will be limited amid speculation of further quantitative easing and a contraction in growth during the third quarter.

The Bank of England kept interest rates on hold at 0.5% this month and policy makers are expected to renew the quantitative plan by November to support the economy. MPC member Adam Posen said last week that the outlook for the economy had worsened and his colleagues should back his call for more stimulus measures to be introduced.

Posen indicated that he may double his recommendation for bond purchases and will intensify the debate within the MPC to add more stimulus. He has voted for a £50 billion increase in the bond plan every month since October and said the BoE needs to buy as much as £100 billion of securities within three months or the economic outlook will worsen.

The claimant count rate was 4.9% in August and the number of people receiving unemployment benefits was 1.58 million. The UK economy barely grew in the second quarter at a revised estimate of 0.2% from the previous month and a measure of factory production, services and construction have all declined in August, making a contraction all the more likely.

The unemployment rate held steady at 7.9% despite the number of unemployed people increased by 80,000 to 2.51 million. The government is hoping that the private sector will help mitigate the drop in public sector jobs over the next four years but there is pressure on banks to cut jobs. The biggest global banks are cutting jobs at the fastest pace since 2008, as a slowing global economy hurts revenue.

The Pound found an area of support in the region of 1.57 against the U.S Dollar and rallied through the European trading session with a peak above 1.58. Underlying confidence in the UK economy will remain extremely fragile, amid fears that there would be a further deterioration in consumer confidence, while there was significant unease surrounding the banking sector.

The Pound fell dramatically against the Euro on Thursday, trading back towards 1.1350, while the single currency also made widespread gains against the majors, including the U.S Dollar, after the European Central Bank announced that it would be increasing Dollar liquidity to banks in an attempt to help resolve the sovereign debt crisis.

The announcement added significant support to the Euro, just a day after Germany and France pledged to support Greece, amid speculation that the struggling nation would be ejected from the EU. Euro buyers have watched the Pound depreciate for four days consecutively this week, a trend that may continue over the coming days, amid a renewed appetite for Euro-denominated assets.

The Pound found support on dips towards 1.5720 against the U.S Dollar and spiked higher through the course of the day on a revival in risk appetite. Developments within the Euro-zone tended to dominate market sentiment, but there remains a distinct lack of confidence in the UK economy, which was emphasized by the poor retail sales numbers.

The report from the Office of National Statistics showed that sales, including fuel declined 0.2% in August, falling for the first time in three months on declining consumer confidence. UK consumer spending was hurt by rising inflation at 4.5%, almost twice the pace of wage growth, while the worst civil unrest in major UK cities almost impacted on sales.

The government spending cuts have also restrained the recovery and is forcing the Bank of England to discuss the possibility of extending quantitative easing to pump more stimulus into the economy in order to prevent a contraction in growth. The BoE said in a report last week that household inflation expectations climbed to the highest level in three years last month.

The latest Rightmove house price index recorded an increase of 1.5% for September, after a 0.3% decline the previous month. Euro-zone trends tended to dominate and the report had a mixed impact on the Pound. The UK currency has also benefited from a being a safe haven from the turmoil that has engulfed the Euro-zone but there are fears that there would be substantial economic damage to the UK if Euro-zone difficulties intensify.

In the UK this week, the highlight will be Wednesday's release of the minutes of the September Bank of England policy meeting. No change in the voting pattern is expected from the previous, although the tone of the discussions will be closely watched given the recent comments from Adam Posen and Martin Weale.

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The Pound in Retreat

Following on from last week, the Pound retreated sharply through the course of the week to lows near 1.5950, as risk aversion stoked demand for the U.S currency. Although the Pound did make a move towards 1.12 versus the Euro towards the end of the week, the general tone was defensive, as the UK currency slipped to a fresh record low against the Australian Dollar.

Escalating concerns surrounding the UK banking sector weighed on Sterling, while the wider deterioration in risk appetite boosted demand for the safest assets. The Pound was unable to derive support from an unexpected 1.2% gain in the Halifax house-price index for June, as underlying confidence in the UK economy remains weak.

On Tuesday, the Pound strengthened against the Euro and the U.S Dollar, after a report showed that a measure of UK service sector growth exceeded initial forecasts in June, alleviating concerns about the recovery and the prospect of a contraction. Sterling had advanced against all but one of the 16 most actively trading currencies but sentiment remains weak and the Pound sold off through Wednesday.

The plethora of negative economic data in the UK at present means that any positive news is supportive to the Pound, as the UK currency challenged resistance levels in the region of 1.1270 against the Euro by Friday. The Pound has declined this year against 12 of the 16 major currencies, as the government's austerity measures weigh on growth, while the fastest pace of inflation since the 1970s squeezes household income.

Barclays Capital has reduced its forecasts for the Pound, citing "very disappointing" economic growth. The bank now expects the Pound to drop to 1.0750 against the Euro, from an earlier forecast of 1.1235, before slipping towards 1.0526 in three months time. The worsening economic outlook has also prompted traders to reduce bets that the Bank of England will raise interest rates before May 2012.

A report from the British Retail Consortium showed that UK shop prices accelerated last month at the fastest pace since October 2008, while wage growth remains relatively subdued. Rising commodity prices and a decline in the value of the Pound has also boosted inflation. Retail prices rose 2.9% from a year earlier, after advancing 2.3% in May.

The Pound remained lower against the majority of the 16 most actively traded currencies on Friday, after the Bank of England left interest rates on hold at a record low of 0.5% and there are few signs that the MPC would be willing to raise with the UK economy in a fragile state. The BoE also maintained its bond purchase program to help boost the recovery but there was no increase in the plan, which will tend to boost the Pound.

Some policy makers have made comments that suggest further quantitative easing may be on the table during the third quarter, as the government cuts and high inflation weigh on growth. The Pound also struggled to gain momentum following reports that UK manufacturing rose at the fastest pace in over a year in May.

Although manufacturing has driven the recovery away from contraction this year, recent data has suggested that output growth may be slowing in the face of the government cuts, while rising prices curtails consumer confidence and weakens global demand. The Pound actually rallied against the Euro, testing resistance just above 1.12, after the ECB raised interest rates in the Euro-zone.

In the three months through May, manufacturing declined 0.2% from the previous quarter, while industrial production fell 1.5%, which suggests the sector will hamper growth in the second quarter. According to a report yesterday from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, the UK economy probably expanded just 0.1% between April and June following its 0.5% in the previous monthly report.

The report may provide an insight to the official second quarter growth figures, which are released later this month. The first quarter growth rate just about wiped out the fourth quarter contraction from last year and early indications are that the economy expanded at an even slower rate in the three months to June, raising concerns of a contraction.

The Pound remained under 1.60 against the U.S Dollar on Friday, trading in a tight range with lows towards 1.5960, despite UK stocks rising 0.9% in London. Short-Sterling futures still suggests that the central bank won't raise rates until May 2012 but any suggestions that a rate increase may happen this year will tend to strengthen the Pound.

The Pound rallied to a high of 1.6080 against the U.S Dollar on Friday afternoon, after the monthly U.S employment report was much weaker-than-expected, as the economy added just 18,000 jobs to payrolls in June following a revised 25,000 increase the previous month. Unemployment also rose to 9.2% from 9.1% and the data renewed fears surrounding the U.S economy and spark further speculation that the Federal Reserve will embark on further quantitative easing.

The focus this week in terms of economic data will certainly be the monthly inflation figures on Tuesday and the CPI rate is expected to remain unchanged at an elevated level of 4.5% in June. Elsewhere, the labour market data will also be watched closely and another increase in the level of claimant count unemployment is expected with the jobless rate unchanged at 7.7%.

So maybe time to use your forex and transfer money into some cheaper investments.

The poor pound remains in the cold.

The Pound remained lower against the majority of the 16 most actively traded currencies yesterday, after the Bank of England left interest rates on hold at a record low of 0.5% and there are few signs that the MPC would be willing to raise with the UK economy in a fragile state. The BoE also maintained its bond purchase program to help boost the recovery but there was no increase in the plan, which will tend to boost the Pound.


Some policy makers have made comments that suggest further quantitative easing may be on the table during the third quarter, as the government cuts and high inflation weigh on growth. The Pound also struggled to gain momentum following reports yesterday that UK manufacturing rose at the fastest pace in over a year in May.

While manufacturing has driven the recovery away from contraction this year, recent data has suggested that output growth may be slowing in the face of the government cuts, while rising prices curtails consumer confidence and weakens global demand. The Pound actually rallied against the Euro, testing resistance just above 1.12, after the ECB raised interest rates in the Euro-zone.

In the three months through May, manufacturing declined 0.2% from the previous quarter, while industrial production fell 1.5%, which suggests the sector will hamper growth in the second quarter. According to a report yesterday from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, the UK economy probably expanded just 0.1% between April and June following its 0.5% expansion in the first three months of the year.

The report may provide an insight in the official second quarter growth figures, which are released later this month. The first quarter growth rate just about wiped out the fourth quarter contraction from last year and early indications are that the economy expanded at an even slower rate in the three months to June, raising concerns of a contraction.

The outcome of the announcement yesterday was widely anticipated and as such the Euro remained lower against the U.S Dollar and the Pound. UK government bonds fell yesterday, as stocks gained worldwide on reports that the U.S economy added more workers than expected last month. The pessimistic outlook for the UK economy softened a little yesterday, with some investors anticipating that growth may accelerate in the second half of the year and that will prompt the Bank of England to raise interest rates by November.

The Pound remained under 1.60 against the U.S Dollar yesterday, trading in a tight range with lows towards 1.5960, despite UK stocks rising 0.9% in London. Short-Sterling futures still suggests that the central bank won't raise rates until May 2012 but any suggestions that a rate increase may happen this year will tend to strengthen the Pound.

The Pound came under further selling pressure this morning, falling to a one-week low versus the Dollar before a report that is expected to show UK producer price inflation slowed in June. The UK currency was weaker against all of the 16 most actively traded currencies, as the cost of goods at factory gates increased just 0.1% from the previous month, negating the urgency for a rise in borrowing costs.

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