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Wednesday, November 10, 2010

US FED STIMULUS PACKAGE WHO WINS???

Well now the US makes another strange move, instead of creating jobs, they created more money.  In a report by Forex Traders;  - "The U.S. Dollar’s weak performance last week came after the U.S. Federal Reserve announced on November 3rd that they would leave the Federal Funds Rate at ‹0.25% and the new QE II stimulus package would consist of a $600B buyback of U.S. Treasury securities by the end of 2011."

So whats that mean to us mere mortals:

After last week’s dismal performance, the U.S. Dollar may be ready to continue its downtrend against most of the other major currencies, and even some of the minors, with the possible exception of the Japanese Yen.


Nevertheless, some caution in shorting the US Dollar this week is advised, mainly because of the increasingly oversold condition of the U.S. currency against the other majors that may prompt a corrective pullback.


In addition to the technicals indicating a possible bounce for the Greenback, the U.S. economy seems to be showing some fundamental improvement in key sectors such as manufacturing and employment.


The gains in these fundamental indicators may signal a favorable turn in the U.S. economic picture which will likely be reflected in gains for the U.S. currency against other major currencies over time.


Going forward, the market will now be watching Wednesday’s U.S. Trade Balance and the upcoming G-20 meetings in Seoul, South Korea just before next weekend to get a better sense of the direction of the U.S. Dollar.

On Thursday, after the US Federal Reserve announced buyback of treasury bills worth 800 billion dollars as an incentive for the country's slow economic growth, market prices of gold futures started growing. A weaker dollar inevitably triggers an appreciation of gold, traditionally viewed as an alternative and more reliable asset, and, at the same time, reduces dollar-denominated commodity prices as compared to other currencies.



For example, in response to the weakened dollar December gold futures on New York Mercantile Exchange sky-rocketed by 3.4% (to $1,383.10 per Troy ounce).






According to analysts, the gold market currently demonstrates an uptrend
 
On Thursday, after the US Federal Reserve announced buyback of treasury bills worth 800 bn. dollars as an incentive for the country's slow economic growth, market prices of gold futures started growing. A weaker dollar inevitably triggers an appreciation of gold, traditionally viewed as an alternative and more reliable asset, and, at the same time, reduces dollar-denominated commodity prices as compared to other currencies.



For example, in response to the weakened dollar December gold futures on New York Mercantile Exchange sky-rocketed by 3.4% (to $1,383.10 per Troy ounce).




On Thursday, after the US Federal Reserve announced buyback of treasury bills worth 800 bn. dollars as an incentive for the country's slow economic growth, market prices of gold futures started growing. A weaker dollar inevitably triggers an appreciation of gold, traditionally viewed as an alternative and more reliable asset, and, at the same time, reduces dollar-denominated commodity prices as compared to other currencies.



For example, in response to the weakened dollar December gold futures on New York Mercantile Exchange sky-rocketed by 3.4% (to $1,383.10 per Troy ounce).


and look what gold did:

 
 
Interesting!
 

Wednesday, November 03, 2010

SA EXCHANGE CONTROL RELAXES - EIIISH about time.

At the end of October, Foreign Investors were given a super boost from Pravin Gordhan the Minister of Finance in South Africa.


His statement and announcement that exchange controls on individuals, companies and pension funds would be eased dramatically with immediate effect, has been welcomed in the International and local markets.  Also, with the fact that the rand has gained nearly 30 percent against the dollar since the start of 2009 as low rates in developed countries push investors towards emerging market assets offering higher returns. Well, ...
 When he presented his medium-term budget policy statement in parliament, Pravin Gordhan said exchange controls on individuals, companies and pension funds would be eased dramatically.  and that by using their foreign investment allowance South Africans will now be able to move R4, 000,000.00 out of the country every year whereas before that was only once before.  A great leap. If you wanted to move more you could apply for this as well....so we certainly see big changes.
"That's the money that's coming to Brazil and South Africa. That's the money that's coming in on a short-term basis and can pull out any time," Gordhan said this mornining..




What else was offered, well there has been an increase of both the individuals annual travel allowance and the annual discretionary allowance, from R750, 000 to R1, 000,000.00.

The scrapping of the 10% exit levy on all blocked assets for those who have already emigrated, is a very welcome sign for the future.


"Well with the strong rand, we will certainly see a call for more fund movement out of SA especially from people who have assets such as properties that are either mortgaged or have equity in them and they want to raise home loans or further loans on those mortgages.  A great time to maximise the benefits of the strong rand", says Chris Green a Financial specialist in SA>.With interest rates at 9.5% and the lowest in the last 30 years, it is time that South Africans abroad and foreigners who own  property in SA, jump on the band wagon.  Call your mortgage broker today.

Tuesday, October 12, 2010

Get More for your Money - International Transfer

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Friday, September 10, 2010

Time to Invest in South Africa with No Money Transfer Fees

So send some money into South Africa and pay NO (0) ZIP, transfer fees!

The interest rate is at it's lowest in 30 years - awesome stuff.

SA Reserve bank is on track!!

Tuesday, July 27, 2010

The Rand Rallies and the Pound is on the Backfoot!!



well time to buy some pounds me mates!!!

Sterling is still on the back foot here, failing to make any convincing breaks above the 11.75 resistance zone.

We've been up to that level three times in the last three months, and failed on every occasion. Things looked a little better on Friday after the Pound shot out of the blocks on unexpectedly strong GDP figures. Growth in the second quarter came in at 1.1% compared to the 0.6% expected.

That's good news by any measure, and helped to back up the positive retail sales data released the previous day. The problem is, all this supposed good news is adding weight to the case for a general global recovery, which in turn prompts investors to buy the higher yielding currencies like the Rand. Sterling does benefit from strong domestic data, but when everything settles down the high yielders tend to come out on top. The results of the European bank stress tests were also released on Friday, showing that only seven regional banks failed to make the cut. All UK banks passed. Again, more evidence that the world economy is finding its feet. The Rand rallied yesterday as speculation grew that HSBC would acquire South African firm Nedbank. The deal would require the purchase of a significant tranche of South African Rand, which helped the currency tick higher against other units.

In other news, the South African central bank kept interest rates unchanged at 6.5% last week. The last change was on March 25th when they cut rates by 0.5%. Analysts expect them to remain on hold for some time to come.

The technical outlook is negative. The UK has recoiled from the 11.75 level and now look set to sell off back to the 11.05 level that marked the late June low.

Buyers of the Rand should consider hedging any exposure now.

Friday, July 23, 2010

MPC keeps repo rate unchanged

The Monetary Policy Commitee decided not to change the repo rate, feeling vthat the current monetary policy is well enough.

Some points they focussed on, included risks that are still in place, even though the debt crisis in Europe started looking better, as well as the Bank's inflation trajectory, expecting to be 4.5% for Q3.

The Bank also gave their view on the level and volatility of the rand exchange rate, devoting themselves to limiting the rand volatility, but not setting any goals.

Economic growth of 2.9% is expected for 2010, which is low, considering the market concensus of 3.3%, owing to the downside risks faced by the manufacturing sector. The Bank also highlighted the weakness in business confidence and the construction sector.

Finally, the Bank said that the strong household spending trend in Q1 is expected for Q2 as well, but the outlook is not that clear due to conflicting signals.

Thursday, July 22, 2010

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Tuesday, July 13, 2010

DEBT LEVELS STATISTICS 2010

With over 18 million active consumers in the marketplace, there is R 1,1 trillion worth of credit being offered by 4,120 credit providers and 34,000 branches nationally.  This is a big market.  But, there are 1,682 debt counsellors - so definite signs of debt management, increased debt loads and more money required by consumers. Nearly 50,000 people are being added per month as "impaired" credit clients.

No need to hide away in your shell, unless you are a cancerian!!

So, is this a good time to send your money to SA and invest in SA.

Well the answer is yes. Our banks are relatively stable in this first tier and second tier economic swing.
South Africans are great spenders.  The country has great investment opportunities with still good returns.  look at gold, platinum, consumer goods, organic foodstuffs, wine and technology.  we still have SA reserve Bank constraints in terms of money flow, however, the desire and demand for foreign currency remains high and you can bring in money without paying any transfer fees, so it need not be a stumbling block at all.

Kenaka - it is time - to transfer your money free to SA.
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Sunday, July 04, 2010

Fall in Gold hurts the Rand - eeish!

Painfully hurting the Rand yesterday was a 4% fall in the gold price. This allowed UK sterling to capture the key technical resistance just above 11.50, which should open the way to further upside in the short term. The next noteworthy resistance level is 12.05.

The Sterling/Rand rate was given a second shot of adrenalin as world stock markets took a major dive last week, driven lower by fears of a Chinese and US slowdown. A string of negative US data including jobless claims and poor manufacturing numbers meant that US stocks closed at a new 8 month low last night, stoking fears of a deeper correction that could keep investors looking for safe havens over the near term. That sense of investor risk aversion sent the Rand sharply lower over recent days as traders sell high yielding currencies and move money into the Yen and US dollar, a phenomenon known as a "flight to quality". This reaction has been seen several times over the last few years. Every time the markets hit a major hurdle, the high yielders plunge. However, so far these currencies have always recovered to new highs against both sterling and the US dollar once the fog clears and investors renew their search for a decent yield (The Rand offers 6.5% compared to just 0.25% in the US and 0.5% in the UK).

Tuesday, March 02, 2010

Rand look a relatively low risk bet for once - ganis against Sterling

Sterling had already lost one percent against the Rand last week, and promptly lost a further three percent when things got nasty yesterday, the largest one day fall since March 2009 . Not a good start to the week! A weekend poll showing a high probability of a hung parliament set the scene for a wobbly week, but it was no one factor that triggered the big slide. Another contributor was Prudential's announcement that it will purchase AIG's Asian life insurance business. That will require the sale of a large amount of sterling to fund the $35bn price tag, most of which is to be paid in cash. Markets were also spooked by news items concerning Iran's failure to cooperate with nuclear watchdogs the IAEA. Sentiment toward the pound has been deteriorating sharply in recent weeks, and any one of these news items were excuse enough to cause a stampede for the exit. An apparent improvement in manufacturing activity was completely ignored, and mixed mortgage data did nothing to contribute. The prospect of low UK interest rates remaining static for a long period further differentiated the high yielding currencies, helping the Rand make hay from sterling's weakness. Firm commodity prices also made the Rand look a relatively low risk bet for once. Stock markets are also doing well, so investor risk appetite is buoyant, except when it comes to sterling.




The technical outlook is dire. We are trading at four year lows this morning, and momentum is extremely negative. The next noteworthy technical support is around 11.15, and below there a further fall to 10.50 would be likely. Despite the recent deterioration it would be prudent to cover at least half of any Rand requirement now to reduce risk. No one knows whether this is just the start of a sterling crisis, and all evidence points toward a lower pound.

Tuesday, February 23, 2010

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Thursday, February 04, 2010

Rand/Pound exchange rate improves - Yeah!!!

So, the Rand has benefitted from a bounce in gold and oil prices over the last few days and not to mention that the South African trade deficit narrowed sharply in 2009, and actually showed a surplus in December as the recession caused a dip in imports. This certtainly provided some short term relief for the rand as SA pulled out of recession in the third quarter of 2009.  Indeed some good news.

Meanwhile the pound which had made gains in January 2010, got smacked with a credit downgrade on the banking sector by ratings agency S&P last week, and had a weaker than expected fourth quarter growth figure.   UK's inflation data showed consumer price inflation  up to 2.9% in December, well above the BoE's 2% target.
This outlook is improving for SA and it looks like we are heading back towards the recent highs at 11.50 - 11.65.

So expect UK Buyers of the Rand considering covering any requirement as soon as possible in case this latest slide takes them to new lows and us to new highs.

Nice, nice for us .
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Thursday, January 28, 2010

2010 Soccer World Cup and sending your money to South Africa

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