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Monday, December 12, 2011

Interest rates remain unchanged!


GBPEUR/GBPUSD
The Pound remained on the front foot against the Euro yesterday, ahead of the EU Summit today and reports that Britain had rejected the treaty. The decline in risk appetite meant the Pound declined back towards near-term support in the region of 1.5550 versus the U.S Dollar, but the UK currency made widespread gains versus the higher-yielding currencies like the Australian Dollar and the South African Rand.


There was no surprise for the Bank of England yesterday, as interest rates were left unchanged at 0.5%, while the quantitative easing plan was also unchanged at £275 billion. As usual with a no policy change, there was no MPC statement and we'll have to wait for the minutes of the meeting later this month to gauge the voting pattern.


The Pound edged higher following the decision and pushed to highs above 1.5750 against the Dollar before retreating sharply, as risk sentiment declined. The UK currency was undermined by the general flow of funds into the Dollar with lows near 1.56, as it held firm against the Euro. There will be speculation of political isolation surrounding the EU summit and, much more damagingly, there will be fears that the UK economy will be vulnerable to any possibility of a Euro-zone break-up.
Safe haven demand for Sterling will continue to be a key factor and there will be expectations of further defensive inflows, despite fears over the UK economic outlook. The principal feature is likely to be a sustained increase in volatility. The European Central Bank cut interest rates yesterday ahead of the EU summit, which could determine if any of the region's members can keep a top credit rating with Standard & Poor's.


Although the Bank of England is reluctant to extend quantitative easing measures until the current round of purchases have been completed, King introduced a new sterling liquidity measure this week to help banks weather any further escalation of the sovereign debt crisis. The Pound and the Euro fell against the Dollar, after the ECB President Mario Draghi dampened speculation that the Central Bank would buy more bonds to fight the debt crisis.


Bank of England policy maker Martin Weale said on November 25th that there's a strong case for further QE in the future and Paul Fisher also conceded that more stimulus may be needed. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research said yesterday that UK economic growth slowed to 0.3% in the three months through November, increasing fears of a recession.

Where is the worlds debt today

Today total global debt stands at approximately $150 trillion, or 194% of global gross domestic product

MMMMMMMM!

Friday, October 21, 2011

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Wednesday, October 05, 2011

Pound pummels Euro and Italy Downgraded


The Pound took advantage of broad Euro weakness, rising through 1.16, despite speculation that the Bank of England may be preparing to implement further quantitative easing measures in Thursday's announcement. A number of MPC policy makers have publicly declared the need for additional support as the economy slips towards contraction in the third quarter. The Pound traded lower against the Dollar, falling back towards the lowest level since January, while the UK currency made gains versus the Australian and New Zealand Dollars as risk appetite declined.
The UK PMI manufacturing index rose to 51.1 in September, from 48.9 the previous month, above the level to indicate growth in the sector, which will help alleviate immediate concerns surrounding the industrial outlook. Underlying sentiment will remain extremely weak, especially considering speculation that the BoE will sanction additional stimulus measures this week.
The Pound maintained a firmer tone against the struggling Euro, as Standard & Poor's preserved its AAA credit rating for the UK and also confirmed the outlook as stable, which will provide some relief for the Pound, especially with an important focus on the Euro-zone credit ratings. The UK has enjoyed a relative safe haven status from the turmoil engulfing much of the Euro-zone and that has been the catalyst for the Pound's advance against the Euro.
The Pound has fallen against the higher-yielding currencies this morning in the build up to the construction data, weakening against 11 out of the 16 most actively traded currencies. The decline in construction will highlight the need for the Bank of England to renew quantitative easing measures this month, as the economy sinks towards contraction.
The Pound fell the most against the New Zealand overnight, but a decline in Asian stocks and the overall sentiment towards risk means that the higher-yielding currencies are likely to weaken further. In the September minutes, the BoE said that it is becoming "increasingly probable" that another round of government bond-purchases may be needed to boost the economy.
The unlikely improvement in UK manufacturing had a muted effect on the market as traders judged it to be insufficient to prevent the BoE from adding more stimulus to the economy. The stable outlook on the nation's debt rating reflects S&Ps expectation that the government will implement the bulk of its fiscal austerity program.

Monday, September 26, 2011

So as the Rand goes South So does the Pound!!

So can the Pound and the SA Rand hang on.

Following on from last week, the Pound slumped to the lowest level since January against the U.S Dollar and the SA Rand stands above R 8.04 to the $, after turmoil engulfing global stock markets increased demand for safe haven currencies and the rand is the fall guy at present. The minutes from the Bank of England's last policy meeting showed that policy makers may need to extend quantitative easing measures to support the economy and keep borrowing costs low. The UK currency also slumped for the first time in four days versus the Euro as the minutes also revealed that officials expect growth in the second half of the year to be much weaker.


There is an increased likelihood that the UK economy slipped into negative growth during the third quarter and the Pound is declining on the prospect of further stimulus measures to be introduced by November. The UK Business Secretary Vince Cable reiterated the need for the Bank of England to act and buy assets other than government bonds.


Will the SA rand re-value itself, and the SA Reserve Bank make a decision to drop rates - I would hope so.


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The Pound also declined against the majors, as an industry report showed UK consumer confidence dropped to the lowest level in four months in August. The decline in confidence follows the worst civil unrest in thirty years during August, while gauges of manufacturing, services and construction also declined.


There is a high degree of uncertainty surrounding the outlook for the UK and indeed the global economy and speculation over another recession is also weakening demand for the Pound, particularly against the lower-yielding currencies like the Dollar and the Yen. The UK currency declined to a low of 1.5450 against the Dollar on Friday, the lowest level since January 11th.


The minutes also showed the voting pattern was 8-1 to maintain the current size of the bond-purchasing plan and was unanimous on keeping interest rates unchanged at 0.5%. However, policy maker Adam Posen, who has voted to increase quantitative easing measures every month this year, increased his recommendation to £250 billion worth of stimulus.


Investors are also betting that the Bank of England will keep interest rates on hold until after July 2012. Elsewhere, a report from the Office of National Statistics showed that Britain had its biggest budget deficit for any August since modern records began in 1993, as government spending increased and income tax receipts declined. The shortfall of £15.9 billion, compared with £14 billion a year earlier and the increase may jeopardise the UK's AAA credit rating. There is also speculation that the government will have to shift fiscal policies given the deterioration in the economic outlook. The weaker outlook for domestic and global growth had an important negative impact on confidence, amid fears that the UK debt burden could trigger a further downturn in economic activity. The latest CBI Industrial orders data provided no support to Sterling, weakening to -9 from 1 previously.
The Pound found support just below 1.54 over the weekend and the UK currency looks set for further losses, as the UK BBA mortgage lending data was marginally stronger-than-expected, which inspired a degree of confidence in the housing sector. The data didn't have a big impact on the market amid international developments elsewhere, which continued to dominate.
There were hopes that Euro-zone leaders would push towards a re-capitalisation of the banking sector and this would tend to provide a degree of relief to UK banks. The Pound also gained support from being outside the Euro-zone, as any burden of supporting weaker Euro-zone countries would not fall on the UK.


There will be very important concerns surrounding the UK economy with increasing pressure for additional quantitative easing by the Bank of England. Nevertheless, the Pound advanced towards 1.15 again against the Euro in early trading this morning and a move higher seems likely this week.


The SA Rand has definitely not escaped the double dip recession.

Monday, September 19, 2011

The Pound does a Jig

Following on from last week, the Pound bounced back against the U.S Dollar on Wednesday, rising for the first time in four days, albeit briefly, after a report from the Office of National Statistics showed that UK unemployment claims increased by less-than-expected in August. Public sector jobs plummeted 111,000 in the three months to June but the smaller decline in jobless claims is a result of the improvement in private-sector job growth.   Money transfer to USA are all the rage.
The government plans to eliminate 330,000 jobs over a four year period, as part of the deficit reduction plan. The Pound lost ground for a third day against the Euro, trading back under 1.15 in what can be described as a corrective recovery from the previous week's upward move to a 4-month high. Appetite for Sterling will be limited amid speculation of further quantitative easing and a contraction in growth during the third quarter.
The Bank of England kept interest rates on hold at 0.5% this month and policy makers are expected to renew the quantitative plan by November to support the economy. MPC member Adam Posen said last week that the outlook for the economy had worsened and his colleagues should back his call for more stimulus measures to be introduced.
Posen indicated that he may double his recommendation for bond purchases and will intensify the debate within the MPC to add more stimulus. He has voted for a £50 billion increase in the bond plan every month since October and said the BoE needs to buy as much as £100 billion of securities within three months or the economic outlook will worsen.
The claimant count rate was 4.9% in August and the number of people receiving unemployment benefits was 1.58 million. The UK economy barely grew in the second quarter at a revised estimate of 0.2% from the previous month and a measure of factory production, services and construction have all declined in August, making a contraction all the more likely.
The unemployment rate held steady at 7.9% despite the number of unemployed people increased by 80,000 to 2.51 million. The government is hoping that the private sector will help mitigate the drop in public sector jobs over the next four years but there is pressure on banks to cut jobs. The biggest global banks are cutting jobs at the fastest pace since 2008, as a slowing global economy hurts revenue.
The Pound found an area of support in the region of 1.57 against the U.S Dollar and rallied through the European trading session with a peak above 1.58. Underlying confidence in the UK economy will remain extremely fragile, amid fears that there would be a further deterioration in consumer confidence, while there was significant unease surrounding the banking sector.
The Pound fell dramatically against the Euro on Thursday, trading back towards 1.1350, while the single currency also made widespread gains against the majors, including the U.S Dollar, after the European Central Bank announced that it would be increasing Dollar liquidity to banks in an attempt to help resolve the sovereign debt crisis.
The announcement added significant support to the Euro, just a day after Germany and France pledged to support Greece, amid speculation that the struggling nation would be ejected from the EU. Euro buyers have watched the Pound depreciate for four days consecutively this week, a trend that may continue over the coming days, amid a renewed appetite for Euro-denominated assets.
The Pound found support on dips towards 1.5720 against the U.S Dollar and spiked higher through the course of the day on a revival in risk appetite. Developments within the Euro-zone tended to dominate market sentiment, but there remains a distinct lack of confidence in the UK economy, which was emphasized by the poor retail sales numbers.
The report from the Office of National Statistics showed that sales, including fuel declined 0.2% in August, falling for the first time in three months on declining consumer confidence. UK consumer spending was hurt by rising inflation at 4.5%, almost twice the pace of wage growth, while the worst civil unrest in major UK cities almost impacted on sales.
The government spending cuts have also restrained the recovery and is forcing the Bank of England to discuss the possibility of extending quantitative easing to pump more stimulus into the economy in order to prevent a contraction in growth. The BoE said in a report last week that household inflation expectations climbed to the highest level in three years last month.
The latest Rightmove house price index recorded an increase of 1.5% for September, after a 0.3% decline the previous month. Euro-zone trends tended to dominate and the report had a mixed impact on the Pound. The UK currency has also benefited from a being a safe haven from the turmoil that has engulfed the Euro-zone but there are fears that there would be substantial economic damage to the UK if Euro-zone difficulties intensify.
In the UK this week, the highlight will be Wednesday's release of the minutes of the September Bank of England policy meeting. No change in the voting pattern is expected from the previous, although the tone of the discussions will be closely watched given the recent comments from Adam Posen and Martin Weale.

Wednesday, August 24, 2011

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Monday, July 11, 2011

The Pound in Retreat

Following on from last week, the Pound retreated sharply through the course of the week to lows near 1.5950, as risk aversion stoked demand for the U.S currency. Although the Pound did make a move towards 1.12 versus the Euro towards the end of the week, the general tone was defensive, as the UK currency slipped to a fresh record low against the Australian Dollar.

Escalating concerns surrounding the UK banking sector weighed on Sterling, while the wider deterioration in risk appetite boosted demand for the safest assets. The Pound was unable to derive support from an unexpected 1.2% gain in the Halifax house-price index for June, as underlying confidence in the UK economy remains weak.

On Tuesday, the Pound strengthened against the Euro and the U.S Dollar, after a report showed that a measure of UK service sector growth exceeded initial forecasts in June, alleviating concerns about the recovery and the prospect of a contraction. Sterling had advanced against all but one of the 16 most actively trading currencies but sentiment remains weak and the Pound sold off through Wednesday.

The plethora of negative economic data in the UK at present means that any positive news is supportive to the Pound, as the UK currency challenged resistance levels in the region of 1.1270 against the Euro by Friday. The Pound has declined this year against 12 of the 16 major currencies, as the government's austerity measures weigh on growth, while the fastest pace of inflation since the 1970s squeezes household income.

Barclays Capital has reduced its forecasts for the Pound, citing "very disappointing" economic growth. The bank now expects the Pound to drop to 1.0750 against the Euro, from an earlier forecast of 1.1235, before slipping towards 1.0526 in three months time. The worsening economic outlook has also prompted traders to reduce bets that the Bank of England will raise interest rates before May 2012.

A report from the British Retail Consortium showed that UK shop prices accelerated last month at the fastest pace since October 2008, while wage growth remains relatively subdued. Rising commodity prices and a decline in the value of the Pound has also boosted inflation. Retail prices rose 2.9% from a year earlier, after advancing 2.3% in May.

The Pound remained lower against the majority of the 16 most actively traded currencies on Friday, after the Bank of England left interest rates on hold at a record low of 0.5% and there are few signs that the MPC would be willing to raise with the UK economy in a fragile state. The BoE also maintained its bond purchase program to help boost the recovery but there was no increase in the plan, which will tend to boost the Pound.

Some policy makers have made comments that suggest further quantitative easing may be on the table during the third quarter, as the government cuts and high inflation weigh on growth. The Pound also struggled to gain momentum following reports that UK manufacturing rose at the fastest pace in over a year in May.

Although manufacturing has driven the recovery away from contraction this year, recent data has suggested that output growth may be slowing in the face of the government cuts, while rising prices curtails consumer confidence and weakens global demand. The Pound actually rallied against the Euro, testing resistance just above 1.12, after the ECB raised interest rates in the Euro-zone.

In the three months through May, manufacturing declined 0.2% from the previous quarter, while industrial production fell 1.5%, which suggests the sector will hamper growth in the second quarter. According to a report yesterday from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, the UK economy probably expanded just 0.1% between April and June following its 0.5% in the previous monthly report.

The report may provide an insight to the official second quarter growth figures, which are released later this month. The first quarter growth rate just about wiped out the fourth quarter contraction from last year and early indications are that the economy expanded at an even slower rate in the three months to June, raising concerns of a contraction.

The Pound remained under 1.60 against the U.S Dollar on Friday, trading in a tight range with lows towards 1.5960, despite UK stocks rising 0.9% in London. Short-Sterling futures still suggests that the central bank won't raise rates until May 2012 but any suggestions that a rate increase may happen this year will tend to strengthen the Pound.

The Pound rallied to a high of 1.6080 against the U.S Dollar on Friday afternoon, after the monthly U.S employment report was much weaker-than-expected, as the economy added just 18,000 jobs to payrolls in June following a revised 25,000 increase the previous month. Unemployment also rose to 9.2% from 9.1% and the data renewed fears surrounding the U.S economy and spark further speculation that the Federal Reserve will embark on further quantitative easing.

The focus this week in terms of economic data will certainly be the monthly inflation figures on Tuesday and the CPI rate is expected to remain unchanged at an elevated level of 4.5% in June. Elsewhere, the labour market data will also be watched closely and another increase in the level of claimant count unemployment is expected with the jobless rate unchanged at 7.7%.

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Friday, July 08, 2011

The poor pound remains in the cold.

The Pound remained lower against the majority of the 16 most actively traded currencies yesterday, after the Bank of England left interest rates on hold at a record low of 0.5% and there are few signs that the MPC would be willing to raise with the UK economy in a fragile state. The BoE also maintained its bond purchase program to help boost the recovery but there was no increase in the plan, which will tend to boost the Pound.


Some policy makers have made comments that suggest further quantitative easing may be on the table during the third quarter, as the government cuts and high inflation weigh on growth. The Pound also struggled to gain momentum following reports yesterday that UK manufacturing rose at the fastest pace in over a year in May.

While manufacturing has driven the recovery away from contraction this year, recent data has suggested that output growth may be slowing in the face of the government cuts, while rising prices curtails consumer confidence and weakens global demand. The Pound actually rallied against the Euro, testing resistance just above 1.12, after the ECB raised interest rates in the Euro-zone.

In the three months through May, manufacturing declined 0.2% from the previous quarter, while industrial production fell 1.5%, which suggests the sector will hamper growth in the second quarter. According to a report yesterday from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, the UK economy probably expanded just 0.1% between April and June following its 0.5% expansion in the first three months of the year.

The report may provide an insight in the official second quarter growth figures, which are released later this month. The first quarter growth rate just about wiped out the fourth quarter contraction from last year and early indications are that the economy expanded at an even slower rate in the three months to June, raising concerns of a contraction.

The outcome of the announcement yesterday was widely anticipated and as such the Euro remained lower against the U.S Dollar and the Pound. UK government bonds fell yesterday, as stocks gained worldwide on reports that the U.S economy added more workers than expected last month. The pessimistic outlook for the UK economy softened a little yesterday, with some investors anticipating that growth may accelerate in the second half of the year and that will prompt the Bank of England to raise interest rates by November.

The Pound remained under 1.60 against the U.S Dollar yesterday, trading in a tight range with lows towards 1.5960, despite UK stocks rising 0.9% in London. Short-Sterling futures still suggests that the central bank won't raise rates until May 2012 but any suggestions that a rate increase may happen this year will tend to strengthen the Pound.

The Pound came under further selling pressure this morning, falling to a one-week low versus the Dollar before a report that is expected to show UK producer price inflation slowed in June. The UK currency was weaker against all of the 16 most actively traded currencies, as the cost of goods at factory gates increased just 0.1% from the previous month, negating the urgency for a rise in borrowing costs.

Tuesday, June 28, 2011

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Friday, June 10, 2011

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UK economy stagnates

GBPEUR/GBPUSD


The Pound failed to receive a boost against the majors, after the Bank of England decided to keep interest rates unchanged at a record low of 0.5%. The UK currency remained just above 1.64 versus the Dollar and 1.12 against the Euro before the ECB press conference. The central bank also kept interest rates on hold this month but in the accompanying statement, the chairman Jean-Claude Trichet, gave a strong indication to the market that the governing council will be raising the benchmark lending rate in July.

His hawkish rhetoric on inflation was followed by the key term that "strong vigilance" is required in order to maintain risks to price stability. Trichet has historically been very transparent on the ECB's monetary outlook and the Euro has been gaining for the past week on speculation that the central bank would increase interest rates to 1.25% in July.

Therefore, the Euro hasn't rallied to a degree that one might expect following the statement, largely because a rate increase has been factored into the market and that is the primary reason the Euro has gained versus the Pound for the past six days consecutively. However, given the inherent weakness in Sterling and the negative sentiment engulfing the UK economic outlook, the Euro may stage a move towards 1.10 over the coming days to test the support level from the previous downside move.

The single currency also had a subdued response against the Dollar following the statement, trading back towards 1.4450 overnight. The downward movement on EUR/USD also saw the U.S Currency strengthen towards 1.63 versus the Pound, indicating that the Euro's incredible rally over the past two weeks was over-exaggerated and we're witnessing a correction in the market.

The Bank of England left interest rates unchanged at 0.5% and investors will have to wait until the minutes of the meeting are released later this month to gauge how the MPC voted in June. Recent economic data has pointed to a loss of momentum in the recovery and policy makers are focused on supporting growth rather than tackling inflation.

The BoE also left its bond purchase program on hold at £200 billion and Mervyn King's push to maintain low interest rates won the support of the IMF this week, which said it's appropriate to maintain the "current scale of monetary stimulus." While inflation is more than double the government's 2% target, support for higher interest rates has been eroded by Andrew Sentance's departure in May, exactly a year after he first called for higher rates.

The UK economy stagnated in the six months through March, barely erasing the contraction in growth from the fourth quarter of 2010. Consumer spending slumped by the most in almost two years in the first quarter and surveys last week pointed to further weakness, as manufacturing expanded at the slowest pace in 20 months in May and services growth cooled.

According to the sterling overnight interbank average, investors are now betting on a 25 basis point increase in UK interest rates in April next year and that forecast is being scaled back almost on a weekly basis, undermining confidence in the Pound. The IMF has lowered its 2011 UK growth forecasts this week to 1.5% and Moody's Investors Service has warned that the UK could be subject to a credit rating downgrade if the government fails to meet its deficit reduction target this year.

The Pound also came under pressure yesterday amid further uncertainty surrounding the UK growth forecast and the overall tone was pessimistic. In terms of economic data, the UK trade data was marginally better-than-expected with the deficit for April £7.4 billion and there were still some expectation that the economy can secure strong growth through rising exports.

The Pound rallied to a high of 1.13 against the Euro yesterday, before contracting later in the day, after Trichet's comments spurred speculation that the ECB won't raise interest rates as quickly as previously forecast. The UK currency bounced back from a one-month low against the Euro, despite Trichet's indication that Europe will lift rates in July, as the rest of his speech was surprisingly negative.

The Pound is trading lower against the Euro and a basket of currencies this morning, before a report that is expected to show a drop in manufacturing output in April. Other data of note today includes producer price inflation, which is expected to show that factory prices receded, further adding to the argument to keep interest rates on hold.

EUR/USD

The Euro spiked higher against the Dollar at the start of the ECB press conference yesterday before retreating sharply following mixed comments from the chairman Trichet. The single currency is poised to record the first weekly drop against the Dollar in a month, as investors speculate on how aggressively policy makers will raise interest rates this year.

The Euro traded lower against 10 out of the 16 most actively traded currencies, as concerns over sovereign debt resurfaced in the wake of Trichet's statement. He rejected calls for the central bank to bailout Greece and his largely dovish rhetoric undermined confidence in the Euro to a degree where the single currency slumped almost 2% versus the U.S Dollar.

The Dollar and Yen also benefited from the uncertainty surrounding global financial markets in the wake of Trichet's comments. The revival in risk aversion saw a flock to safety during the Asian trading session overnight, as traders moved away from higher-yielding assets in favour of the safe haven currencies.

Tuesday, June 07, 2011

Paying the price for property in Dubai

Tameer Holding, a Dubai-based developer, has repossessed 400 units till date and expects no more defaults ahead of handover of its two projects next year, the company president told the news recently.

“During the last two years we put in place a strategy to deal with each investor particular situation, which has resulted in a considerable reduction in the rate of defaults already. We don’t expect defaults at handover of our Princess Tower and Elite Residence in Dubai Marinahttp://www.globalfundi.com/forex/money-transfer-services/, since the customer that are reaching that point have already paid a significant percentage of the purchase price,” said Tameer President Federico Tauber.

In November, Tauber told the news mediathat they company had repossessed 200 units.

Asked what will be the biggest challenge when they commence handover of the two towers in Dubai Marina, he said: “These two projects in combination contain in excess of 1,400 apartments. The single biggest challenge will be the logistics involved in coordinating and managing the handover process and moving in of such a large number of customers. The planning for this immense task has already begun.”

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According to Tauber, the majority of apartments in both projects have been sold with only a small amount of inventory is currently available. Mortgages were not always available at all levels according to other sources.. He did not give the current sales prices, adding that prices were specific to each apartment and dependent on size, orientation, view, etc.

“Customers continue to recognise the value proposition of these landmark projects as sales continue to be achieved in both projects in recent months.”

Tameer has already completed Silver Tower in Business Bay and hand over procedures is likely to commence soon. The developer claims only a small number of apartments are available in Palace Towers project at Dubai Silicon Oasis.

“In an effort to assist our customers during these difficult times we are currently offering furniture vouchers to new apartment buyers in this project, this is in addition to the white goods already being provided. This offer has been welcomed by a number of buyers who have already taken up this opportunity which is available for a limited time only,” he added.

Tuesday, May 10, 2011

Markets, Commodities and Forex

 Upward trajectory of gold price sustained through Q1 2011


 Middle East oil and gas companies challenged by geopolitical risk and economic uncertainty

 Capital markets remain depressed amidst weak investor confidence

 Barrick to acquire Equinox

Free Money Transfers available from UAE, GCC to South Africa

Tuesday, May 03, 2011

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Monday, April 18, 2011

Invasion of the body snatching mortgage originators

There is still much talk in the market about the future of bond origination in South Africa, saw an article in Pretoria News this morning ABSA versus Originators.  Interesting.  We are acutely aware that these rumours create instability in the market and industry and many feel insecure so watch the skies!!!  So with this in mind and the kind persmission of the Property Professional aricle is April 7th 2011 - lets re-examine the pertinent points.

Bond origination came into its own in South Africa when the property boom hit. Those times have long since gone, and as the South African property landscape has changed, so has the origination sector.   However, the suvivors have proved invaluable.

A while ago, when things got shaken up by the National Credit Act and the recession, it was said that bond origination would cease to exist as a service to the real estate industry. Some of the banks pulled out of the origination space to rather service their clients directly, but came back to include origination as a home loan distribution channel as they saw the value originators bring to the table, although the terms and conditions of operation changed. Commissions were cut and mortgage originators had to run a leaner business than ever. Origination contracts have once again been renewed, and once again commissions have been cut even further. It is also said that not all of the banks have renewed their contracts as yet. So where exactly does the origination business stand in the current South African property market? Here’s what the industry had to say:

The Originators

Rudi Botha, CEO of Betterbond, says that there is definitely a place for origination in the industry as it is a service that the home buyer, estate agent and the banks benefit from. “Mortgage originators assist home buyers in getting the best possible deal on their bond, coupled with expert advice, more chances to obtain finance and the convenience of one generic application form. Forestate agents, originators provide a free, convenient service which allows them to secure more property sales by providing the buyer with multiple chances to obtain finance. The origination process also allows the agent to retain control of the property sale transaction when it comes to time restraints for conditions of sale to be met, among other benefits,” he explains.

Saul Geffen, Chief Executive Officer of ooba, says there is unquestionably a place for mortgage originators in the bank’s home loan distribution channels. “Mortgage origination offers the banks outsourced, variable cost distribution and, importantly, access to both retention of their own customers and acquisition of non-bank customers. Our banking partners recognise and support origination’s value proposition to real estate, as a single point of contact for the home loan process, and the customer’s requirement for choice.”

Botha says that for the banks, origination is a viable acquisition channel through which to obtain new home loan clients, added to which, the majority of the knowledge and expertise of bond finance now lies with the originators. Because of this, originators are able to deliver quality applications to the banks electronically.

When asked how ooba views the current role and importance thereof of mortgage originators in the bond finance/home loans sector, Geffen says it is the expert support that a good bond consultant can offer real estate and the homebuyer which is invaluable. “The tough credit environment and the National Credit Act have strengthened the role of and the need for originators. Quality advice can make the difference between the homebuyer getting the bond granted or not and, therefore, between the estate agent closing the sale or not. A good bond consultant is a partner in the estate agent’s sale.”

Looking forward, Geffen says that as an industry that provides a customer value proposition to all its stakeholders, origination has a reason for being. “Origination offers the customer value proposition across the role players and is therefore sustainable. The industry has undergone radical structural shifts over the last few years, and the model has been tested. The customer value proposition of origination has been a constant throughout and has sustained mortgage origination as an industry.”

Botha believes that the South African property market would be lost without the origination service. “Although the origination business has had to be re-engineered in recent times to accommodate numerous changes, it still offers a viable and sustainable value proposition to the banks, agents and consumers.”

The Banks



When asked what they think of origination, the banks had varied responses. Nedbank Home Loans, for example, said that relating residential home loan market changes means it would be inappropriate for them to comment on possible future scenarios at present.

Absa, the bank that is reportedly not renewing its origination contracts as they want to get closer to their clients, was more vocal, saying it believes in a multiple-channel approach to home loans. “As part of its multi-channel strategy, Absa will continue to engage with mortgage originators as they are part of the value chain. Absa continuously seeks to give its customers choice and convenience and we assess each of our channels according to strategic fit, cost, profit, possible risks as a result of origination through that channel and customer choice,” says Luthando Vutula, managing executive of Absa Home Loans.

Charlotte Smit, head of sales at First National Bank (FNB) Home Loans, says that mortgage originators play a valuable part in the property industry as they add great value to the bank and customer. “Their relationships with the estate agents, who are at point of sale, are still very strong. We have always maintained exceptional partnerships with key mortgage originators to leverage off these relationships and foresee continued rewarding relationships going forward.”
Smit says that the role of the mortgage originator in the home loan industry is held in high esteem due to their knowledge and expertise. “Greater synergy in the operations between the mortgage originator and the bank results in the estate agent and customer being in a better position to make an informed decision on what is most likely the biggest purchase they will ever make,” she says. Smit adds that since originators establish the customer’s needs in terms of products available and compiles the relevant application on behalf of the customer, the banks are able to process the deal seamlessly. “This ultimately means greater efficiencies and cost saving for all parties.”

Mortgage originators are not writing as much business as they used to due to the bank’s differing risk appetites. This is according to Funeka Ntombela, head of Standard Bank Home Loans, who also says that while mortgage origination relationships with the banks are now different, there is always a customer who needs advice on such a major purchase. Therefore, mortgage originators, she says, can and will continue to play a role in the South African property industry. “We continually seek to provide our clients with choice and, as an intermediary, originators are able to secure buyers with the best deal possible.”

In addition, she says, the applications received from originators are easier to process, while the originator’s service meets customer needs, which in Ntombela’s mind is their biggest advantage.

“While previously we had a fairly high reliance on originators, they now form part of a multi-channel strategy. The future of the mortgage origination industry is strongly linked to the future of the property market in South Africa. And while we have experienced a tough couple of years, with flat predictions for the next three years at least, South Africa has a unique set of circumstances. Our economy is slowly improving, which means there is bound to be pent-up demand for property with a limited supply. With the positive changes in economy, so will affordability issues decrease, while the banks appetite to lend will increase,” she says.

The Agents
All agents agree on the value that origination brings to property transactions and say there can be no doubt as to their sustainability going forward.

Herschel Jawitz, CE of Jawitz Properties, says that in the USA and other countries, mortgages are commoditised products. “Buyers go where they get the best rate and will move over for as little as 25 basis points. Banks have to compete on rate and service but the stance that we can only lend to you if we have your bank account and payroll is more the stick approach than the carrot. The challenge we have in South Africa is that, as with most industries, competition is limited and therefore the banks’ power to dictate the terms of their lending is high, relative to other countries where mortgage lending is far more competitive,” he says.

For Jawitz, the value proposition of originators is equally clear and even more so in the current market where obtaining a mortgage is not easy. “There is no doubt that mortgage origination provides a valuable service to the consumer and real estate alike and that this value creates a better and more efficient residential market in South Africa. On this basis the industry should be and will be sustainable. The challenge lies with the lack of competition in the banking environment and the mindset of the banks about who their customers are and how to retain existing and attract new customers. It cannot be done on the basis of 'if you give us ‘x’ then we will grant you ‘y',” Jawitz concludes.
Lew Geffen, chairman of Sotheby's International Realty in South Africa says there is certainly value in mortgage origination for both homebuyers and estate agents. “From our point of view, mortgage origination is a very hands-on relationship, with a service provided by a dedicated in-office specialist who is very motivated to make sure that the homebuyer gets the needed finance and that the transaction can thus proceed. We did not find this was the case in the old days when the banks each had their own home loan representatives going around from agency to agency.

"As to the future, I think mortgage origination is here to stay, or at least that it should, from the banks' point of view as well as that of homebuyers and estate agents. The originators have a high calibre, well-paid and motivated sales force already in place to deliver business to the banks, and the costs to the banks are minimal now that the bloat has been taken out of origination commissions. Going back to the old way of doing things would be like raising a dinosaur."
Adrian Goslett, CEO of RE/MAX of Southern Africa, says that a good originator will be able to identify which bank’s product offering would best suit the particular client and advise accordingly when applying for a home loan. “This,” he says, “is one of the reasons why originators have become an important part of the process ever since the banking institutions took a decision to outsource this function in an effort to reduce fixed overheads.”
Goslett says that over the years originators have filled this role, having employed a large majority of the previously employed bank consultants in their organisations. Today originators are an integral part of the home loan process as banks simply do not have the resources or manpower to cope with the volumes.

Andrew Golding, CE of the Pam Golding Property group says: “From a South African perspective, while there have been fluctuations and changes, the mortgage origination industry has been a part of local real estate life for the past 10 years and more, the public has become accustomed to using originators and so has the real estate industry. Originators provide an extremely convenient and efficient service to all concerned and so therefore it seems likely and probable that this function will continue for the foreseeable future.”
Looking forward, he says that like any new industry, there is likely to be inevitable teething problems and the past 10 years have seen most of these been ironed out. “It appears now that a satisfactory solution for all parties - being the estate agency industry, the mortgage lenders themselves, as well as the consumer - has now been found and, therefore, on the basis of convenience and efficiency, it is likely that this industry is sustainable.”

Berry Everitt, CEO of the Chas Everitt International property group, says that without originators, many sales would fall through for lack of finance - and not necessarily because the homebuyer is a bad risk but often just because he or she does not know how to approach the application process, or does not have the time or inclination to go from bank to bank in search of the best offer.

“The fact is that control of the money remains with the banks, and that for mortgage origination to be successful, it must be seen by the banks to deliver value to them as well as homebuyers and estate agents. For some time, it appears, the banks' view was that the advent of mortgage origination had forced them to compete for home loan business and then made them pay heavily for the privilege of doing so. This led to a level of unhappiness, but that appears to have been resolved, where there is now a better balance between the cost of origination and the value of the business being generated through originators.”

He says that where previously the banks were looking to mortgage originators to deliver volume and market share, now they want - and are getting - better quality applications at a better price, and they are still saving money on not having to use their own staff to source home loan business and to process home loan applications. “The future looks solid for mortgage originators as long as consumers and agents, as well as banks, perceive value in what they do,” Everitt concludes.
Tony Clarke, MD Rawson Properties says that that the origination function is so important in the obtaining of bond financing in order to complete real estate deals, that Rawson created its own origination subsidiary.

“Origination is for the consumers,” he says. “It offers them the freedom of choice. But it is easy to see why the banks are not in favour of origination as they tend to view their clients as a captive audience. Origination forces banks to be competitive by making them compete for their own clients. It is because origination is so consumer-oriented, that we believe it is very sustainable.”

Clarke notes that, as in all businesses, origination will keep morphing into different models; however he believes that since origination essentially benefits the consumer, at no cost, it will be around for as long as the bulk of properties in South Africa are sold by real estate agents.
Harcourts Africa CEO Richard Gray says that the cornerstone of originators’ value proposition is convenience. “They also offer choice and expertise,” he says. “Clients who walk into bank branches have typically to endure long queues and very seldom deal with home loan specialists. The securing of home finance in the property transaction has become more and more critical and you need experts and specialists to manage the application process, which mortgage originators provide.”
Gray says he believes that the origination industry has been reshaped by the banks in the past two years and is now able to offer huge value to the banks as well as estate agents and the homebuyer. “Originators have also reduced their cost base and have become leaner. As long as the banks commit to their mortgage origination relationships and provide stability for the originators, the industry has the potential to be sustainable,” he says.

Aida CEO Young Carr says that just about everyone in the industry is aware that the banks have been thinking recently about whether or not to bypass mortgage originators and go back to dealing directly with estate agencies and their clients when sourcing new home loan business.

"However, I think most have already come to the conclusion that this would not foster better relationships with either the agencies or potential borrowers. Homebuyers applying for a loan have grown used to their applications being submitted to several financial institutions at once in order to better their chances of being granted a home loan and, hopefully, offered a competitive interest rate. Agents have also grown used to handing over the loan application process to mortgage originators with their automated submission systems and up-to-date knowledge of the various banks' home loan products, and they are also unlikely to relish the prospect of going back to a time when they had to handle all the paperwork involved and deal with all the different bank representatives.”
Carr says that to go back to the old system, banks would then each have to recreate, at considerable expense, the networks of home loan consultants that were disbanded with the advent of mortgage origination, which I don't believe they would find easy or cost effective.

"In short, I think it is clear that mortgage origination is offering a valuable service, to banks as well as homebuyers and estate agents, and that the future of the industry is assured as long as the banks continue to find that the benefits they derive, especially in terms of customer satisfaction, outweigh the costs of this service," he says.
It has become evident that everyone is in agreement that the service mortgage originators provide is an invaluable one, which means that, for the foreseeable future, it is one that is here to stay.

Thursday, March 24, 2011

Awesome report on Property finance in Eurozone, US, UK, Malaysia and Australia and

When looking at lending, mortgages, finance, home loans and just the best advice and information of the current situation in US, Malaysia, the Eurozone, UK and Australia  - look no further.

This amazing financial report provides their outlook for the future, highlighting strategies which will optimise the leverage of your current investments and future property investments.



So please look at this wonderful complimentary financial home loan and free report. download it and thoroughly enjoy reading it.

We are pleased to be able to offer international mortgages and advice and information in more than 50 Countries worldwide.

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Thursday, March 03, 2011

Whats happening on the FOREX Front?

Today's Sexy forex updates!



Rate cut prospects hit Kiwi


Kiwi falls to a 10-week low against its US counterpart, while the good old dollar fails to gain any safe and secure traction from risk aversion in other markets





US jobs data a spot of cheer for Asian stocks


Shares in Asia bounced back as investors were heartened by stronger US jobs market data but tensions in the Middle East continued to crimp gains






Brazil seeks to curb rising inflation


Brazil's central bank raised interest rates by 50 basis points in the second such move this year as it seeks to curb rising inflation - eeish whats next









Rise in crude propels gold to record high


Fighting between rebels and pro-Gaddafi forces in Libya fuel fears that the country could descend into civil war, heightening worries about prolonged supply disruptions


Top Forexfundi News Feeds for today

Thursday, February 24, 2011

Budget 2011

SA BUDGET 2011


Government has set out five priorities:

They are:

• Education

• Health Car

• Fighting Crime

• Rural Development

• Creating Jobs

The Twelve outcomes adopted by Cabinet are:

• High quality Basic Education

• Improved Health and Life expectancy

• Greater Public protection and safety

• More rapid employment creation and inclusive growth

• Skilled and capable workforce

• Sustainable human settlements and improved quality of household life.

• Responsive and accountable local government

• International cooperation for a better and safer world

• A development-oriented public service and inclusive citizenship

• Efficient economic infrastructure networks

• Vibrant rural communities and food security

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE 2011 BUDGET:

Towards inclusive growth and Equitable Development

• South Africa’s new growth path aims to create 5 million jobs over the decade ahead

• Education and skills development remain top priorities in Government Expenditure

• Investment in infrastructure of over R800 billion over the next three years

• Phased implementation of Social Security and national health insurance reform

• Key fiscal policy guidelines: stability over the business cycle, sustainability and inter-generational equity

Economic recovery and Employment

• Economic growth of 3.4% is projected for 2011, increasing by 4.4 % by 2011

• Consumer price inflation dropped from 7.1% in 2009 to 4.3% in 2010, and is expected to rise to 5.5 % by 2013

• 63 000 formal non-agricultural jobs were created between April and October 2010 and unemployment fell from 25.3 % in the 3rd Quarter to 24% in the 4th quarter.

• Job creation potential of 485 000 over the next three years in trade and construction sectors

• Investment incentives in manufacturing, with a special focus on job creation

• R9 billion jobs fund to co-finance employment initiatives with self-sustaining potential

• Youth employment subsidy to create net 178 000 jobs over three years

• Expansion on FET college, skills development and extension of learnership



Fiscal Framework



• Additional R94.1 billion in government expenditure plans over the next three years

• Budget deficit of 5.3% projected in 2010/11, 4.8% in 2012/13 and 3.8% in 2013/14

• National government net loan debt projected to rise from R526 billion at the end of 2008/09 to over R1.4 trillion in 2-013/14



Tax Proposals

• Personal tax relief of R8.1 billion

• A third rebate relief for individuals 75 years and older

• Conversion of medical tax deductions to tax credits

• Transfer duty relief

• General fuel levy increase of 10c a liter, and 8c a liter more for Road Accident Fund

• Increases of 4.5% - 10.3% in taxes on alcohol and tobacco products

• Taxation of gambling winnings



Additions to spending plans over the next three years



• R10 billion for job creation, small enterprise development, youth employment

• R10.4 billion for public transport, roads and rail infrastructure

• R9.5 billion to increase enrolment at further education colleges and promote skills development

• R8.2 billion for upgrading school facilities and improved learner support materials

• R7.9 billion to improve primary health care , revitalize hospitals and HIV care

• R7.2 billion for human settlement upgrading, municipal services and waer infrastructure

• R2.8 billion for rural development and emerging farmer support

• R8.9 billion for social security benefits and social grants old age and disability grants increase by R60.00 R1 140.00 per month and a further R20.00 to R1 160 per month for those over75; the child support grant will increase from R260.00 to R 270.00 in October

• 1.8 billion for municipalities and provinces to deal with immediate disaster needs and R600 million for post-recovery and reconstruction following the floods in early 2011

Thursday, February 17, 2011

Cost of Travelling fees fees fees

What super news and finally a bank getting it together.

Chase has some great news for international travelers who are sick and tired of fees that ALL credit card companies tack on when merchants process a transaction outside of the United States of America.


This week, Chase announced it would no longer smack everyone with these heavy currency conversion fees on its United Mileage Plus Club Visa and the Continental Presidential Plus card.

Finally some credit for your efforts. If you have a Chase United or Continental card with a different name, you will probably continue to pay the fee for non-United States transactions, though you should call the company to clarify this. These guys are great in selling you additional services and products, thats the game.

While there are plenty of card companies that continue to levy these fees, the momentum is clearly swinging toward getting rid of them, thanks in part to people like you who have complained loudly and then found ways around them and people like me who never tire of pointing out how questionable the fees are.

Chase has already dropped the fees on British Airways, Priority Club and Hyatt co-branded credit cards. Citigroup has done so on select cards, and American Express plans a similar move.

So will we see this happening with localised credit card service providers in South Africa, UAE etc we will see.!!












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Friday, January 28, 2011

SA Rates work well for the UK Pound

So the weaker Rand against the pound - thats interesting.

Sterling has managed a stellar recovery against a very weak Rand since New Year.

The 9% rally in the exchange rate has been prompted by a general shift in investor risk appetite.

The high yielding currencies had been doing well in Q4, and the Rand enjoyed the same kudos as the Aussie dollar even while the South African Reserve Bank are in rate cutting mode.

A slide in the gold price (which came off its $1,430 per ounce peak over New Year and now trades around 6% lower at $1,336) impacted sentiment toward the high yielders, and as we know well from experience over recent years, these currencies tend to rise steadily and then suffer sharp setbacks when investors sense trouble.

The so called "carry trade" has been largely responsible for the inexorable rise in the Aussie dollar and Rand, and when traders unwind these positions the currencies come under short term selling pressure. A carry trade is where investors borrow in a low interest rate currency and change the money for higher yielding currencies. The bet works well as long as the high yielding currency rises. A fall in the high yield currency can cause a stampede as traders head for the exit. That's what we've seen over the last few weeks in the Rand.



In the UK inflation and interest rates were the dominant theme last week after news that the Consumer Prices Index rose to 3.7% in December, well ahead of the forecasted 3.4% rise. Retail prices (which include a wider basket of goods including housing costs) rose to 4.8%. The inflation figures prompted traders to consider the possibility of interest hikes sooner than previously expected. Then we heard this week that fourth quarter GDP growth was - 0.5%, which makes any notion of a near term rate hike extremely unlikely as the economy flirts with recession. Bank of England governor Mervyn King added weight to the case for no rate hikes when he commented that any rise in rates would not be helpful.


South African consumer prices rose 3.5% in December, giving the central bank plenty of scope to keep interest rates on hold at 5.5% at last Thursday's policy meeting. The last change in the bank's benchmark rate was a cut on November 19th from 6%.


The technical outlook is still precarious for Sterling. We've seen these sharp rallies dissipate all too often over the last few years as investors invariably head back into higher yielding assets. The market has found resistance around the 11.27 level, which marked the high back in November. If Sterling could manage a daily close above there it would open the way to our next key resistance level at 11.75. Buyers of the Rand should strongly consider covering any requirement now, locking in the 9% gain we've seen over the last 3 weeks. This has been the sharpest rally since November 2009.






Market Analysis by Jon Beddell thanks Mate!!

Tuesday, January 25, 2011

Money money money!!

One thing that we all want in life, would be money. the larger the amount we can get, the bigger our smiles would be:)


But sometimes, when we want something, but don't have the money, we have to get a loan. Whether it's  personal loans, a home loan or even a loan to cover that Ferrari of yours.


Some people believe that money makes the world go round, some believe that money leads to success, leads to happiness. But I've got news for you, my friend...


The road in life begins with happiness. If you're not happy without money, how will you ever be happy with it? Something for you to think about for the remainder of the day;)