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Tuesday, June 28, 2011

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Friday, June 10, 2011

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UK economy stagnates

GBPEUR/GBPUSD


The Pound failed to receive a boost against the majors, after the Bank of England decided to keep interest rates unchanged at a record low of 0.5%. The UK currency remained just above 1.64 versus the Dollar and 1.12 against the Euro before the ECB press conference. The central bank also kept interest rates on hold this month but in the accompanying statement, the chairman Jean-Claude Trichet, gave a strong indication to the market that the governing council will be raising the benchmark lending rate in July.

His hawkish rhetoric on inflation was followed by the key term that "strong vigilance" is required in order to maintain risks to price stability. Trichet has historically been very transparent on the ECB's monetary outlook and the Euro has been gaining for the past week on speculation that the central bank would increase interest rates to 1.25% in July.

Therefore, the Euro hasn't rallied to a degree that one might expect following the statement, largely because a rate increase has been factored into the market and that is the primary reason the Euro has gained versus the Pound for the past six days consecutively. However, given the inherent weakness in Sterling and the negative sentiment engulfing the UK economic outlook, the Euro may stage a move towards 1.10 over the coming days to test the support level from the previous downside move.

The single currency also had a subdued response against the Dollar following the statement, trading back towards 1.4450 overnight. The downward movement on EUR/USD also saw the U.S Currency strengthen towards 1.63 versus the Pound, indicating that the Euro's incredible rally over the past two weeks was over-exaggerated and we're witnessing a correction in the market.

The Bank of England left interest rates unchanged at 0.5% and investors will have to wait until the minutes of the meeting are released later this month to gauge how the MPC voted in June. Recent economic data has pointed to a loss of momentum in the recovery and policy makers are focused on supporting growth rather than tackling inflation.

The BoE also left its bond purchase program on hold at £200 billion and Mervyn King's push to maintain low interest rates won the support of the IMF this week, which said it's appropriate to maintain the "current scale of monetary stimulus." While inflation is more than double the government's 2% target, support for higher interest rates has been eroded by Andrew Sentance's departure in May, exactly a year after he first called for higher rates.

The UK economy stagnated in the six months through March, barely erasing the contraction in growth from the fourth quarter of 2010. Consumer spending slumped by the most in almost two years in the first quarter and surveys last week pointed to further weakness, as manufacturing expanded at the slowest pace in 20 months in May and services growth cooled.

According to the sterling overnight interbank average, investors are now betting on a 25 basis point increase in UK interest rates in April next year and that forecast is being scaled back almost on a weekly basis, undermining confidence in the Pound. The IMF has lowered its 2011 UK growth forecasts this week to 1.5% and Moody's Investors Service has warned that the UK could be subject to a credit rating downgrade if the government fails to meet its deficit reduction target this year.

The Pound also came under pressure yesterday amid further uncertainty surrounding the UK growth forecast and the overall tone was pessimistic. In terms of economic data, the UK trade data was marginally better-than-expected with the deficit for April £7.4 billion and there were still some expectation that the economy can secure strong growth through rising exports.

The Pound rallied to a high of 1.13 against the Euro yesterday, before contracting later in the day, after Trichet's comments spurred speculation that the ECB won't raise interest rates as quickly as previously forecast. The UK currency bounced back from a one-month low against the Euro, despite Trichet's indication that Europe will lift rates in July, as the rest of his speech was surprisingly negative.

The Pound is trading lower against the Euro and a basket of currencies this morning, before a report that is expected to show a drop in manufacturing output in April. Other data of note today includes producer price inflation, which is expected to show that factory prices receded, further adding to the argument to keep interest rates on hold.

EUR/USD

The Euro spiked higher against the Dollar at the start of the ECB press conference yesterday before retreating sharply following mixed comments from the chairman Trichet. The single currency is poised to record the first weekly drop against the Dollar in a month, as investors speculate on how aggressively policy makers will raise interest rates this year.

The Euro traded lower against 10 out of the 16 most actively traded currencies, as concerns over sovereign debt resurfaced in the wake of Trichet's statement. He rejected calls for the central bank to bailout Greece and his largely dovish rhetoric undermined confidence in the Euro to a degree where the single currency slumped almost 2% versus the U.S Dollar.

The Dollar and Yen also benefited from the uncertainty surrounding global financial markets in the wake of Trichet's comments. The revival in risk aversion saw a flock to safety during the Asian trading session overnight, as traders moved away from higher-yielding assets in favour of the safe haven currencies.

Tuesday, June 07, 2011

Paying the price for property in Dubai

Tameer Holding, a Dubai-based developer, has repossessed 400 units till date and expects no more defaults ahead of handover of its two projects next year, the company president told the news recently.

“During the last two years we put in place a strategy to deal with each investor particular situation, which has resulted in a considerable reduction in the rate of defaults already. We don’t expect defaults at handover of our Princess Tower and Elite Residence in Dubai Marinahttp://www.globalfundi.com/forex/money-transfer-services/, since the customer that are reaching that point have already paid a significant percentage of the purchase price,” said Tameer President Federico Tauber.

In November, Tauber told the news mediathat they company had repossessed 200 units.

Asked what will be the biggest challenge when they commence handover of the two towers in Dubai Marina, he said: “These two projects in combination contain in excess of 1,400 apartments. The single biggest challenge will be the logistics involved in coordinating and managing the handover process and moving in of such a large number of customers. The planning for this immense task has already begun.”

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According to Tauber, the majority of apartments in both projects have been sold with only a small amount of inventory is currently available. Mortgages were not always available at all levels according to other sources.. He did not give the current sales prices, adding that prices were specific to each apartment and dependent on size, orientation, view, etc.

“Customers continue to recognise the value proposition of these landmark projects as sales continue to be achieved in both projects in recent months.”

Tameer has already completed Silver Tower in Business Bay and hand over procedures is likely to commence soon. The developer claims only a small number of apartments are available in Palace Towers project at Dubai Silicon Oasis.

“In an effort to assist our customers during these difficult times we are currently offering furniture vouchers to new apartment buyers in this project, this is in addition to the white goods already being provided. This offer has been welcomed by a number of buyers who have already taken up this opportunity which is available for a limited time only,” he added.